Your Monthly Market Newsletter, DECEMBER 2025

The U.S. stock markets were at a high this November, primarily due to a continued strong performance in artificial intelligence focused technology stocks and expectations of a December Federal Reserve rate cut. A record-long U.S. government shutdown (43 days) ended this past month. The data releases that follow indicated rising slack in the labor market, impacting economic decisions.

The Dow Industrials Index rose for a fourth consecutive session by the end of November, benefiting from broad market gains and easing trade tensions. The S&P continued an upward trend, and outperformed value stocks. The real estate market cooled to a more balanced state, with an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate settling around 6.2% to 6.4%, boosting buyer predictability.

As we close out the year, now is an excellent time to revisit your risk tolerance, review your portfolio diversification, and ensure you have the right balance of growth opportunities and stability. By using a sound approach, we can help you stay confident in your financial situation moving into 2026. If you would like to discuss your current strategy, contact our office today to schedule some time. Wishing you a happy holiday season and healthy start to the new year!

Stocks

Increased volatility was on the menu alongside turkey and stuffing in November. The longest government shutdown in U.S. history ended on November 12th, paving the way for long-delayed economic data releases. Equity markets initially rallied on the news, but sentiment quickly reversed as investors weighed what fresh data might mean for interest rates and wrestled with renewed concerns of an emerging AI bubble. Despite the mid-month turbulence, the final week of November brought a welcome rebound, with large-cap tech regaining momentum and small-cap equities leading the way. As the year winds down, equity investors are shifting their focus to the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the path of interest rates.

Sector Performance

Despite a volatile month for equities, only three of the eleven sectors were negative. Health care, communication services, and materials stood out as the strongest performers, supported by growing corporate profits and their defensive appeal as markets navigated the latest round of volatility. Their strength helped offset weakness elsewhere and kept overall sentiment more balanced. In contrast, information technology, consumer discretionary, and industrials lagged, as uncertainty around growth and the Fed’s next move weighed more heavily on these more economically sensitive areas.

Bonds

Fixed income markets experienced a 5th consecutive positive month, supported by a continued pullback in interest rates. Lower yields helped drive bond prices higher across most market segments, with longer-term bonds benefiting the most. While markets increasingly anticipated the possibility of another rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, policymakers maintained a cautious tone. Progress toward the 2% inflation target remains the Fed's central priority, and the trajectory of future rate cuts will depend heavily on incoming data, with higher inflation likely to mean fewer rate cuts. November’s combination of easing yields and softer inflation readings created a supportive backdrop for fixed income investors heading into year-end.

Economic Update

During the prolonged government shutdown, investors were forced to rely on private-sector indicators to gauge the economy's health, leading to greater uncertainty and a wider range of interpretations. With the government shutdown now over, long-awaited data is being released once again. One of the most important releases was the Consumer Price Index, which came in cooler than expected at 3.0%, signaling further progress on inflation. The Producer Price Index echoed this trend, rising only 2.7%, showing softer-than-anticipated wholesale inflation and suggesting that price pressures continue to ease throughout the supply chain. Retail sales also provided a helpful read on consumer strength, as spending remained more resilient than many had anticipated, rising 4.3% versus last year but only 0.2% versus the prior month. Although some of the inbound data is outdated, it allows us to gain a clearer picture of where the economy was heading before the shutdown began. Overall, November’s delayed but meaningful data releases offered reassurance after a month of uncertainty, pointing to moderating inflation and a still-steady U.S. consumer as the year draws to a close.

‘Tis the Season to be Resourceful: Creative Ways to Reduce Waste this Holiday Season 

In the UK, consumers are searching for new creative ways to recycle and eliminate the exceedingly high levels of waste produced during the holiday season. A woodworker named Louise Forbes and jeweler Islay Spalding created an outdoor sculptural Christmas tree to celebrate the season using discarded musical instruments. Topped with a cello scroll, it features parts of violins, guitars, drums, bagpipes, and even an abandoned piano they discovered in the street. Forbes says, “It was a really fun project, taking these instruments apart and putting them together to create a sculptural piece.” Spalding also highlights the creative spark that comes from reusing materials.

“Our brains are clogged with information that gets shoved in there from phones and everything.” Her advice is simple and provides an opportunity to reset: “Take a break from your phone and fill your brain with all the amazing stuff that’s around you. Go out, notice what’s out there, and look a bit deeper at things.”

Lowri Johnston, a sustainable flower farmer in Wales, makes holiday wreaths from foraged foliage including ivy and dried strawflowers that is available in nature. “Most people could probably go out and find enough material to fill a wreath themselves,” she says.

To read more about the creative ways people are decorating their homes this holiday season in the pursuit of resourcefulness, view the full article here.

THOUGHT FOR THE MONTH

^{Index Definitions}

^{Dow Jones Industrial Average:The Dow Jones Industrial Average® (The Dow®), is a price-weighted measure of 30 U.S. blue-chip companies. The index covers all industries except transportation and utilities.}

^{Dow Jones U.S. Real Estate Total Return Index:The index is designed to track the performance of real estate investment trusts (REIT) and other companies that invest directly or indirectly in real estate through development, management, or ownership, including property agencies.}

^{NASDAQ Composite:The NASDAQ Composite is a market-cap weighted index of all issues listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. It is heavily weighted towards the technology sector.} 

^{S&P 500 Bond Index:The S&P 500® Bond Index is designed to be a corporate-bond counterpart to the S&P 500, which is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities. Market value-weighted, the index seeks to measure the performance of U.S. corporate debt issued by constituents in the iconic S&P 500.}

^{S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary:The S&P 500® Consumer Discretionary comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® consumer discretionary sector.}

^{S&P 500 Consumer Staples:The S&P 500® Consumer Staples comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® consumer staples sector.}

^{S&P 500 Energy:The S&P 500® Energy comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® energy sector.}

^{S&P 500 Financials:The S&P 500® Financials comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® financials sector.}

^{S&P 500 Index:The S&P 500® index is a market-cap weighted index of the largest 500 companies headquartered in the United States. The index covers approximately 80% of available market capitalization.}

^{S&P 500 Utilities:The S&P 500® Utilities comprises those companies included in the S&P 500 that are classified as members of the GICS® utilities sector.}

^{S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index:The S&P U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is designed to measure the performance of publicly issued U.S. dollar denominated investment-grade debt. The index is part of the S&P AggregateTM Bond Index family and includes U.S. treasuries, quasi-governments, corporates, taxable municipal bonds, foreign agency, supranational, federal agency, and non-U.S. debentures, covered bonds, and residential mortgage pass-throughs.}

^{S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Index:The S&P U.S. Treasury Bond Index is a broad, comprehensive, market-value weighted index that seeks to measure the performance of the U.S. Treasury Bond market.}

^Disclosures

^{PLEASE NOTE: When you link to any of the websites displayed within this email, you are leaving this email and assume total responsibility and risk for your use of the website you are linking to. We make no representation as to the completeness or accuracy of any information provided at these websites.}

^{A portion of this material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG Suite, LLC, is not affiliated with the named representative, broker-dealer, state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information and should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.}

^{Index performance does not reflect the deduction of any fees and expenses, and if deducted, performance would be reduced. Indexes are unmanaged and investors are not able to invest directly into any index. Past performance cannot guarantee future results.} 

^{Investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect again loss. In general, the bond market is volatile; bond prices rise when interest rates fall and vice versa. This effect is usually pronounced for longer-term securities. Any fixed-income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to a substantial gain or loss. Vehicles that invest in lower-rated debt securities (commonly referred to as junk bonds or high-yield bonds) involve additional risks because of the lower credit quality of the securities in the portfolio. International investing involves special risks not present with U.S. investments due to factors such as increased volatility, currency fluctuation, and differences in auditing and other financial standards. These risks can be accentuated in emerging markets.}

^{The statements provided herein are based solely on the opinions of the Osaic Research Team and are being provided for general information purposes only. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments. Any opinions provided herein should not be relied upon for investment decisions and may differ from those of other departments or divisions of Osaic or its affiliates.}

^{Certain information may be based on information received from sources the Osaic Research Team considers reliable; however, the accuracy and completeness of such information cannot be guaranteed. Certain statements contained herein may constitute “projections,” “forecasts” and other “forward-looking statements” which do not reflect actual results and are based primarily upon applying retroactively a hypothetical set of assumptions to certain historical financial information. Any opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements presented herein reflect the judgment of the Osaic Research Team only as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. Osaic has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these opinions, projections, forecasts and forward-looking statements. Osaic is not soliciting or recommending any action based on any information in this document.}